How long will the good times last?

I am new to the business, but it appears to me there has been a tremendous growth in the industry with in the last 5 years due to education and the increase in genetics (antler size). Everyone wants the biggest. It also looks like it moved from the highest score and now moving towards the largest typical frames. Where is it going next?



It reminds me of the 80’s with computers… having to upgrade every year because this years product is that much better than last, but now computers are so good you can keep one for years without issue. Prices of computers have also dropped.



My concern is how long can the business stay “HOT”? Will it end when all breeders have 400 inch deer walking around ? When do you think the industry will mature and/or slow down? Or do you think it will go on for ever? What will cause the downturn if there is one?



How will the dramatic increase in antler size affect the shooting prices? Will the market be saturated with sub 200 inch deer? Are there enough hunters to shoot them?



Will the deer market suffer the same fate as the stock market? I hope not!



I am just trying to get opinions on where you think the market is now and where you think it is going.



Thanks!!

Karl,

You ask some great questions that I truly don't think anyone can answer for sure. I am sure there will be those who will come on and paint the doom and gloom picture of how things are going to heck and we are flooded now with extra bucks and so on and so on.



Personally I think the deer industry as any other industry has to and will evolve. The one greatest thing the deer industry has that many other animal industries didn't have is we have an end market for our stock. Deer farming is not based on the breeder market alone. Yes the breeder market is where the better dollars can be made by some. But it isn't the sole end market. I think that just as big of dollars can be made raising shooters. For that reason I think growing deer is still a good bet.



Yes the bar has been raised greatly over the last few years. A 200" buck is not as special as it once was. That said it still is special to those who have never shot one. Fact is a 170" buck is still special if you have never shot one. For this reason I feel there still will be a market for the low end hunts.



That said a more organized and concentrated effort needs to be made to draw in the new hunters.(hunters that have never hunted at a high fence facility)



I do think that a great opportunity is there for the taking to those who adjust their ranches to cater to these folks. This will be done by some and this will infuse new hunters to our industry. That said I do think that all farms need to keep raising the bar on what they grow because you can't expect to make any real money raising 170" and 190" bucks. They are not a dime a dozen. More like a dime per 2 dozen now.



I do also think that as you stated the "next hot thing" will continue to keep the breeder market going as well. It is human nature to purse what is the best. This also will keep pushing our industry to produce even more amazing bucks. Yes, the 400" mark has been hit. Heck I will say that even the 500" mark was hit already. Yes Sudden Impact died before he achieved it. (8" short) but had he not died while growing out those last few inches he would have indeed broke 500"



As you said the big frames is now the thing. I predict a purely typical and very straight 300" buck is around the corner. I think in 3 years or less. Yes we have had 300" bucks with typical frames but I am actually saying a straight 300" typical. And then the bar will be raised to 400"

This is achieved by the "dirty and nasty" breeder market pushing the limits as hard as they can be dare pushed. It will be a "top breeder" that breaks this mark I can guarantee it.

So what do I think will happen?



I think the best days of this great industry are still ahead of us.



WOW! I can just imagine a 40" wide, 7x7 inline mainframe, with double or triple drops and 80" of mass, with a typical score of 350" and a gross score of 400" with all the extras up high and out.



I'm gettin a w--dy jus thinking about it



Just my thoughts for what little I know.

?????...... What's a windy?

HaHaHa. Curtis, You would have to have hung around with me in person maybe. I kinda of have a way of sayin things I guess?

Curtis, from your view there at the edge of the earth how does the future look for the industry?

breeding stock has been quite slow here for a number of years but my phone has been starting to ring lately, we can only sell within our province

I think as we recruit new hunters into high fences, the buck demand will continue to grow. Also, as genetics improve how quickly you can produce a shootable buck, they will get shot quicker and fewer will be allowed to grow to an older age. Most will be shot at 1.5 years old. Buck demand will remain strong as long as we continue as an industry to market our product to the hunting public.



What we need is a market for the does. Since they are not shot, their only use is to produce. As offspring quality increases, the use of the lesser quality doe decreases and they become a liability. We need to explore the idea of using older, lesser genetic does for venison farming for food. This would create an end market for does and possible healthy meat for the public. I think currently this is not legal in Alabama but i'm not sure about the rest of the country.

I've made this comment before but will state it here again. For the venison market to be profitable, the meat needs to be marketed as whitetail venison - since we are competing with red deer venison. It has to be marketed as some high end specialty meat. For example, how did squab get to be some high end dish??? It is just a pigeon for heavens sake. Marketing, Marketing, Marketing.