What's the deal?

Memory Lane Farms955061406953919



Okay look it causes me concern when I see whole herds being sold.... We all heard about cougar ridge selling out? And there's been a few more since? Does anyone have a reasonable explanation for these guys bailing out without warning? Are these guys especially a Legend Like David seeing the writing on the wall that we haven't? Just food for thought and wondering what everyone s opinion of these things is?




Nah..Family time and commitments for Dave and new great owner in Allan Myers that will take that place to a whole new level and Will getting some time and cash freed up so he can run for president some day. lol.  This industry is strong. Not Texas strong for some reason but strong.

Over time the industry has become more educated by its terminal market. Hyping semen and manipulating breeding stock prices has become a much tougher game. The terminal market is the truth, and the price for typical stockers over the years has remained consistent. A lot of the semen and breeder market has been propped up by hype and manipulation which has been indicated by huge plummets in prices within certain genetic lines. How many sires truthfully have ever justified paying over 2,000 per straw of semen when all their offspring large and small are considered? In my opinion even with conception guarantees it is very tough to spend over 2,000 and balance the books consistently. We have spent over 2000 per straw around 10 times but never have come out ahead with feed cost, mortality, etc. Raising deer for a hundred years doesn't necessarily help one who is stuck on stupid. I don't want to be stupid! We have been very profitable selling stockers born out of our own genetics and breeders. I believe the stocker market will only get stronger as more and more hunters come to our ranches. Most old silver back breeders have indeed seen the hand writing on the wall. We all believe our own deer are awesome and beautiful. The wakeup happens when we try hyping our opinion and version of "awesome" to the hunter. They are the truthful jury of fruits of our genetics. Texas semen markets are stronger because they are consistently getting more for their stockers than we are in most states in the north. Again, all in my opinion, for those breeders concentrating on raising hunt bucks there is bright future awaiting. For those newbies paying big money for semen . . . Good luck!

Memory Lane Farms955061406953919



Okay look it causes me concern when I see whole herds being sold.... We all heard about cougar ridge selling out? And there's been a few more since? Does anyone have a reasonable explanation for these guys bailing out without warning? Are these guys especially a Legend Like David seeing the writing on the wall that we haven't? Just food for thought and wondering what everyone s opinion of these things is?




Ezra and Megan,


Everyone will have their own opinion on what the state of the industry is. Some will say things are great, and some will say the industry is dead. The real truth will lie somewhere in the middle of course.


One's perspective will be guided by how well their own sales are going, or by their desire to create an impression of the industry to manipulate those in or thinking about getting into the industry.


Since your asking for opinions I will share mine at the risk of being ridiculed by some.


The rise of an industry...For several years the industry was in a steady growth. Some of the challenges in about 2001 such as stricter regulations and testing requirements made some drop out of the industry. However for as many as were dropping out, there were others starting up. Those start ups of course created positive sales for those already established. As positive sales were becoming the norm it was simply a supply and demand issue. Prices rose and as they did farms already in the business saw an opportunity to increase income if they had the genetic lines that were in higher demand. This caused existing farms to join the buying trend further spiking the supply and demand issue. Also many farms simply wanted to increase the quality of the bucks they were producing so they purchased new females, males and semen. Again driving the supply and demand issue further. Then add to this legitimate increase in prices the fact that some decided to get greedy and create the illusion that their lines were in some way in even higher demand and higher value. The later was done at auctions and we all saw this happening. Despite everyone seeing it many were caught up in the hype and bought into it thus helping to create the illusion even further.


Then came the fall...At some point the average farmer had added enough new stock to his herd and he felt he now had the quality needed to grow the larger bucks that would give him the income he wanted. Unfortunately feed prices rose, vet costs rose, and regulations became even stricter and more costly eating away at the increased income. 200" bucks no longer held the value they did a few years earlier. As this happened some have said the profit simply isn't there and they started getting out. Supply and demand shifted the opposite direction and breeding stock prices started to fall. As more folks who had made investments with the hope of making money in the rising breeding market started to realize they were too late they to started to sell off their higher cost animals. So we had less buyers and more sellers. Then you have the cut throat sellers who very cleverly devised a plan to drive down demand on the genetic lines they didn't want to see stay at the top. They have sold the new "big money" guys on the idea that only their lines will grow big deer and make them the money they are after. All this combined to create a crash in the market to some extent. Anyone who wants to say this crash didn't happen need only review the auction books over the last few years.


Is the industry finished? At the current rate of degradation the industry can't survive indefinitely. Borders are closing and despite those who say some states should be closed this is bad for the industry. Regs are not created using science but rather as an effort to strangle the industry. We are not only fighting the animal rights wackos but also a percentage of the hunting public. The "purist" hunters as I call them. Despite efforts to get young people into hunting the number of hunters each year is declining. Yes, there has been some growth in hunting at hunt ranches. But to sustain the industry at a strong level use of ranches needs to increase. However we can double the numbers of those wanting to use a hunt ranch and that will not help us if farms are not able to move their animals from state to state, and if CWD testing is allowed to be used as a tool for eliminating whitetail facilities.


That all sounds like I think the industry is failed and we are doomed. And yes as things are headed I don't feel the industry will be around to let me retire raising deer. That said I have bought some deer in just the last few days and I have committed to some other deals as well. Raising deer for me is like crack to a drug user. They will have to pry the antlers from my cold dead fingers. Over the years I made some decent money selling deer and semen. I made many good friends and a few great friends. I have shifted my desire to be a part of the breeder market to now I am just raising stockers for hunting ranches. Why the shift? I have several reasons. Tired of the chasing. Tired of the headaches. But mainly because I never sell anything to anyone if I in good conscience don't think they should buy it. I strongly advise anyone who is not in deer to reconsider starting. I strongly advise anyone looking to buy deer to only spend what you can afford to lose. If the government comes in TODAY and tells you that your all done selling deer how will you react? If you are able to say, "well it was fun while it lasted" then you are alright. However if your response is, "how will I pay my debt off?" Then you my friend have a serious problem.


These were just the opinions of a guy who has seen the rise and fall of the industry over the past 20+ years. Good luck to everyone.

If the hunting preserves stay open the deer farmers stay in business. Breeding top quality names and hype deer does not keep deer farming going.... Buying and selling shooter bucks keeps us all going even the big guys...

RyanM84955201406982725



If the hunting preserves stay open the deer farmers stay in business. Breeding top quality names and hype deer does not keep deer farming going.... Buying and selling shooter bucks keeps us all going even the big guys...




So true! Unlike Roger, I see a growth in our industry coming again because the very states that degrade us are doing their best to ruin the hunting in their state thus pushing more hunts to ranches. There will always be hunters and i see hunting becoming a rich mans sport of sorts. You either pay big money and lease good hunting land or you go to a ranch for a few days a year and get your enjoyment. The closed borders is the big issue but if the ranches have business and the farmers in the closed border state can supply the product, the wheel will continue to turn. But again there is no such thing as a sure thing in this life?

It's all about market share, business pure and simple.  There are only so many hunters.  What percent will hunt preserves and what will hunt free-range?  The DNR's are seeing there market share slip away.  I have seen several "purist hunters" admit it in articles, they are afraid they are losing hunters to preserves.  The DNR also has a supply problem.  When they have too many deer it is a serious problem on crop predication and car accidents.  The DNR WILL have a serious problem with CWD.  Soon the double-standards they are imposing on us will bite them in the rear.  Legislatures we speak with are now starting to "get it".  The "Wind Cave" reaction is hurting them.  How can they release animals to the wild from a herd that had a 40% prevalence rate, let alone still allow the herd to exist, when,  if we have a single case on a farm, we are totally depopulated?  Brakkes for example, in their herd plan, once they are depopulated, they have to assure in writing that no crop grown on their farm [in the old deer pens] is used in feed that goes to deer.  Apparently, someone is concerned about the prions in the plants!!  What about in Wisconsin, where endemic zones are more than less?  How many of the crops, hay, etc, is going into our deer feed supplies?  Maybe we should be concerned?  Another double-standard?  Will foreign importers of our grain products "get this"?  How will USDA explain this to them???  I would hate to be the government official, trying to explain to a Chinese official, that the grain raised on our deer farms can be contaminated, but the grain from the "free ranging" contaminated deer is "ok"!  


This being said,  I think the future of preserves will will get stronger.  We can guarantee our product, and risks, the DNR can't.  At some point the DNR will be exposed for mismanaging the "free-ranging" deer herd, and these deer are putting the public and our food supplies at risk!!!  At some point the public will ask, Can we afford to maintain such an artificially high number of "free ranging" deer that benefits such a few [like around 8% of the population]??  I have had large grain producing farmers tell me that "maybe all deer should be behind high fences".


Again, it's about market share.  We can control our quality, supply, and risks, they cannot.  It's time we as an industry understand that the "free ranging" deer are our competition, even our enemy.  We need to take the gloves off.  We can't just keep trying to play nice with them, when they are going for our throats.  I think in the future, preserves will prevail.


Gary Olson

Gary I sure hope your correct. The only and biggest issue that effects this is just this one point. How many farms and preserves will still be left by the time we get to where you feel we are headed? Every "new" CWD case shuts down yet more farms and preserves. Every "new" case in the wild in a county where it wasn't "found" before essentially shuts down the farms in that county because they can no longer ship. Despite having tested and tested and tested and even if double or triple fenced. It is those regs that is choking off the industry. Until they stop acting like CWD is going to wipe out the entire population the industry will continue to bleed out. They need to realize CWD is not what kills our deer. Our goal is to have them harvested by clients long before they could ever die of this political illness.

There are some good reports [for us] coming out of Wyoming that states,  that CWD doesn't seem to be a factor in their deer decline.  Some of the DNR  people keep using Wyoming deer declines, as the hammer on us.  They are saying they don't want to see the declines Wyoming is going through in their state, but aren't mentioning that there are no deer farms in Wyoming, and the decline isn't from CWD.  We have to keep reminding the public of this.  This is why we need positive PR put out, and we HAVE to respond to the negative articles.  We ARE catching them in their lies.  We need to expose these people, with their either, their lack of knowledge of CWD, or that they are lying about the facts.  Either way their testimony, or opinion is discredited. 


Missouri will tell the story of our future next month, with the veto over-ride.  If we can get the truth and scientific facts out there about our industry, we will win the battle, if we don't win this battle , the out-come of our industry, may be different.


 


Gary

I agree with a lot of what Roger says.  I'm going to tangent a little on my own thoughts.  Hunting ranches in the north have lowered prices over the years whereas the majority of free ranging hunts in the north have become increasingly more expensive.  I looked at every free range hunting place on the internet before going on a high fence hunt and to me the decision was easy.  I'm away from home working 300 days a year and I only have at most a week to go hunting.  Free range hunts would charge extra for shooting bucks under 130 and their average buck would be 140!   I could not find a single place that was shooting 150" bucks consistently with 80% success for less than I could go to a high fence ranch and shoot a 180" buck with a money back guarantee.  It seems to me that hunting ranches have begun to undersell one another to a point where it's almost not profitable to them if they are not raising a lot of their own bucks.  There are some that are ornate to attract the clientele for whom money is no object but the majority are very competitively priced.  Then there is Texas....  I have yet to see prices fall on hunts in Texas... Why I do not know but a lot is just because that is how Texans are.... I have seen Texans that simply don't care if the buck cost twice as much they want to shoot a big Texas deer.  I've also seen Texas deer in person I would not breed with if the straw were free and people in the North lining up to buy them a 5,6,7k a straw.  Breed just about any buck to 200 does and you are bound to get a couple winners.  And just look at the economy in Texas versus the rest of the country.  There are a lot more jobs and money in Texas than the majority of states across the country.    As far as hype well that is all advertising is in my opinion.  That being said some degree has to exist or prices won't ever be pushed up enough to sell breeding stock.  To me some degree it is just fun and really in a man's nature to be competitive and brag on their accomplishments.  Now 100k breeder bucks... I'll guarantee Northern Yankee scores 400+ right now, after thinking he was going to die in April to get where he is now is impressive to me, but I'd sell him and give you every straw I have for 100k just give me a call!  Semen prices... A lot of variables here.  Well first of all most people have a crappy guarantee in my opinion to start with so why spend a couple thousand on a straw when they are going to blame your doe if semen doesn't take?  Regardless if it is the doe or the semen to blame the doe's owner is the only one out money.  Then there are 100 straws online every week for 100-200 bucks.. Then their are people that have money and don't have to make a profit and will spend thousands on a straw.  There's a lot of bucks out there I like but worth 4,6k?  Not in my opinion.  I hope one day money will be no object to me and I won't mind spending 5-10k on a straw.  Even then I still wouldn't have anything from some of the guys with hyped up high dollar deer regardless because I've tried to talk to them and been blown off or tried to contact and gotten no response.  Seriously why would any of you buy from some of these guys that are only your buddy when they think you have money and are trying to sell you something?  I personally have never dealt with David and thus nothing against David.  I visited his farm in Oklahoma years ago and it was a nice clean place and I was curious what bucks that he was asking 10-12k per straw looked like.  Hardcore was very impressive but I don't see prices ever getting back to that level again and I don't think his offspring has shown that value either.  From a business standpoint I think David has done as well as anyone can hope for and makes sense to get out now.  Because in my opinion the industry can at best hope to remain flat.  I don't see the US economy turning in a positive direction any time soon either so I am pessimistic on the prices for stockers.  I'm shocked the market is as good as it is.  I guess most people have given up on the government and simply refuse to watch the news.  Which stocker prices brings my opinion about typicals and the main reason most hunters want the big typicals is because for the same money you get a lot more frame than one with nontypicals.  If it's not money put a buck with drop tines or kickers out beside a clean typical and see which one 90% of hunters shoot first....  Even my dad tells me how ugly the nontypicals are and how they are too big and how he likes nice clean 10 pts and the last big buck he shot he got all excited and said "look at the forked tines, split brows, drop's... He has everything!"  I think there are more breeders that believe in typicals than hunters because I've gotten much more positive compliments out of my typical yearling. 

Does Texas have a preserve council similar to the one Nadefa formally organized? Issues of undercutting other ranches' hunt prices by a competing preserve could be confronted by a council. Some preserves and middlemen are so conniving and such smooth talkers they pretty much steal some people's deer. These are the preserves with the rock bottom hunt prices. They have gotten their hunt bucks by being weasels with fraudulent schemes. Therefore, they don't have the overhead cost of someone who is paying the producer a fair price. I would love to see another preserve council formed by our industry's ranches.

I think the industry is in for a big adjustment.  Not that long ago I was paying $10,000 for a good 200 inch deer.  Now I have heard of some people selling 200 inch HUNTS for $5,900.  It use to take 4 or 5 years to get a 200 inch deer but now seems everyones 2 yr olds are all over 200 with 3 yrs olds going over 300 to 400.  For these reasons I think shooter prices are going to continue to fall.  There use to be an elite group of guys producing all these big deer and made a fortune but now everyone is producing big deer. Face it, these big guys have took a huge hit in the past years.  There are easier ways to make money now that the profits have been slashed so deep.

Hotrod956591407118607



I think the industry is in for a big adjustment.  Not that long ago I was paying $10,000 for a good 200 inch deer.  Now I have heard of some people selling 200 inch HUNTS for $5,900.  It use to take 4 or 5 years to get a 200 inch deer but now seems everyones 2 yr olds are all over 200 with 3 yrs olds going over 300 to 400.  For these reasons I think shooter prices are going to continue to fall.  There use to be an elite group of guys producing all these big deer and made a fortune but now everyone is producing big deer. Face it, these big guys have took a huge hit in the past years.  There are easier ways to make money now that the profits have been slashed so deep.




I agree and i also believe there should be a different pay scale set for smaller bucks that have more demand. Unless 200inches is the next 130 hunt then the 130 to 180 bucks should be worth more. I know i cant sell my 200 to 300in 3 year olds as easy as i can sell some of my 150 to 190 2yr olds. Atleast in my state anyways!

In my opinion there are certain genetics that have been bred up that are so distasteful that I can't believe someone can be found that will pay 5,900 to hunt a 200" version of the line. This is part of the problem. We have bred for score instead of look. Not that long ago most 200" inch bucks looked much different and they were ninety percent mainframe along with most of the smaller hunt bucks.