Thoughts on a couple things about the market... The corporate market is diminishing right now I believe. I know of several landowners around that had their ranches leased to companies last year that are looking for someone to lease their place this fall. The problem with this trend is these landowners have been spoiled. Now understand these are "free range" landowners, some Ive leased from in the past, that were getting twice what I pay and in my opinion were getting overharvested by these companies. Now these landowners think that price is the going rate and expect that but I'm not going to pay it and I dont believe many other "individuals" or outfitters will either.
This may end up having a good effect on the preserve and outfitting markets and hopefuly it will settle the price of leases for a while. I know leases in this area have been steadily going up since 1995, it cant last forever. The adverse effect may be the landowners trying to go up on prices to make up for losses in other areas, again it depends on what hunters are willing to pay. Personally I'm not raising the price on anything and dont plan on paying any more for any lease. I recently had a landowner try to raise the price mid lease and basicly I told them I cant pay that and I'll have my stands and feeders off by the end of the month. They changed their mind but needless to say I dont have any respect for said landowner anymore and once the lease is up that will be it.
I think the deer market is in a similar place. Take away or lower the numbers of hunters, which is the driving force of this market and prices will fall. Its not going to fall because preserves charge less its going to fall because they dont need as many deer to supply their lower number of hunters. Then the next stage affecting the price will be how many breeders are willing to hold onto shooters another year, or even two? What do you do then? I personally would pay a little more for a 170 3 yr old then I will a 170 5yr old just because of survivability alone. By the time you hold that deer two years and get the same amount of money for him you havent made anything, even if he ends up being 200 at 5(if he even lives til then). You also have to deal with pen space as another possible problem.
The bigger problem will be the year after though. If the hunting market trends down for just one year and say 3 out of 10 breeders opt out of selling shooters for less money that year thats a 30% increase in the number of shooters for the following year. Unless the hunting market picks up 30% that year you're going to be screwed again.......
I dont agree that the price will bottom out or people wont be willing to pay if people sell for less than what theyve been getting. The preserves have to adapt to the hunting market to survive and the breeders will have to adapt to the preserve market to survive as well. In my opinion those that do adapt will be around. Its happening all around us right now, If you dont adapt or have something everyone wants you may not be here in 5 years unless you have really deep pockets. Somehow I dont think we'll be bailed out if our markets fall..... The absolute worst part of the shooter buck market is there's such a small window to make all these decisions and hope you get it right.