- Joined
- Apr 6, 2009
- Messages
- 1,130
- Location
- Columbia, MO
I like all the comments from everybody. There is nothing better than a good discussion. I appreciate your thoughts Mike a well as everybody’s.
Here is where I think we are at and what will happen in the next couple years:
Right now there is a lot of big high scoring deer on the market. To get high scoring deer, they need to have extras. Call them non-typical if you want. This is the last I will mention typical-non-typical in this post. We'll just talk about score and price.
Most deer growers are growing deer that are over 180 at 3 years old. Many breeders I know are growing deer much bigger than that. Most of our 3 year olds scored way over 200 with many in the 250-300 range.
Most hunters want to spend from 3,000 to 6,000 on a hunt. We have had a bunch of new hunters move from low fence to high fence due to the drop in pricing and crappy low fence hunting they have been experiencing. If you only get from 3,000 to 6,000 for a hunt how much can you pay for the deer?
At most you can pay from 1500-3000 (If we use the 50% rule).
Where does that put us on size? Most breeders will sell their 150's to 170's for 1500-3000. They won't take that for their bigger deer. The demand is great for the 150-170 class. Not because of the look, but because of the price. And of course at that size and price, the look is usually typical (whoops).
NOW HERE IS A FACT:
Our ability to grow big deer has grown MUCH MUCH faster then the rate of what hunters are willing to pay. Let me repeat that.
Our ability to grow big deer has grown MUCH MUCH faster then the rate of what hunters are willing to pay. What does that mean?
One of 2 things has to happen. Either hunters have to pay more to shoot the bigger deer or the prices of the bigger deer have to come down to meet what the hunters will pay.
HOPEFULLY WE CAN MEET IN THE MIDDLE.
Now for all those people who don’t believe this I’ll ask this question. Do you think those big high scoring, high priced deer would move a little faster if the price was dropped by a third. How about half? If I could only pay 2000-3000 for a 220 inch deer would I be able to buy them? I’ll bet if I could buy them and sell them for 5- 6,000 that they would be taken in the preserve so fast that it would be amazing! And all of the sudden those 150-170 deer would be passed up like crazy.
So here is what I think (and I’m planning) will happen.
High scoring deer will have to come down in price, maybe 25%. 150-170 deer may go up in price (they are rare). When that happens, the hunters will step up in size a little (Unless our government keeps screwing us…which is highly possible). Demand will shift to the higher scoring deer and those deer will be taken and harvested. Things in those regards will start to balance out.
The end market will dictate what will happen over the next 5 years. Be thankful we have an end market. It drives the business.
THE GOOD AND THE BAD.
The bad of course is that prices on the big deer may continue to fall. The trick over the last couple years would be for breeders to be increasing the size of the deer they sell faster than the prices have dropped. For example if you used to raise 10 shooters that averaged 170 and brought 3500 each you grossed 35000. If they didn’t get any bigger the next few years and the price went to 2500 your gross dropped 10,000. But if you were like most breeders and increased your size to 200+ and got 4500 each, you may have increased your gross by 10,000. Prices were dropping but you were raising bigger deer. Of course costs have gone way up and really hurt us all lately.
The good news is (and I love this) we continue to widen the gap between preserve hunting and low fence hunting. That means we recruit more hunters which of course creates more demand. If a hunter is willing to spend 3000-6000 on a low fenced hunt there is a chance he will spend it in a preserve. This is all for another topic for another time but I really look at falling prices as an opportunity. It will cause problems in the short run but create demand in the long run.
Just some thoughts for now. Keep the comments coming!
Here is where I think we are at and what will happen in the next couple years:
Right now there is a lot of big high scoring deer on the market. To get high scoring deer, they need to have extras. Call them non-typical if you want. This is the last I will mention typical-non-typical in this post. We'll just talk about score and price.
Most deer growers are growing deer that are over 180 at 3 years old. Many breeders I know are growing deer much bigger than that. Most of our 3 year olds scored way over 200 with many in the 250-300 range.
Most hunters want to spend from 3,000 to 6,000 on a hunt. We have had a bunch of new hunters move from low fence to high fence due to the drop in pricing and crappy low fence hunting they have been experiencing. If you only get from 3,000 to 6,000 for a hunt how much can you pay for the deer?
At most you can pay from 1500-3000 (If we use the 50% rule).
Where does that put us on size? Most breeders will sell their 150's to 170's for 1500-3000. They won't take that for their bigger deer. The demand is great for the 150-170 class. Not because of the look, but because of the price. And of course at that size and price, the look is usually typical (whoops).
NOW HERE IS A FACT:
Our ability to grow big deer has grown MUCH MUCH faster then the rate of what hunters are willing to pay. Let me repeat that.
Our ability to grow big deer has grown MUCH MUCH faster then the rate of what hunters are willing to pay. What does that mean?
One of 2 things has to happen. Either hunters have to pay more to shoot the bigger deer or the prices of the bigger deer have to come down to meet what the hunters will pay.
HOPEFULLY WE CAN MEET IN THE MIDDLE.
Now for all those people who don’t believe this I’ll ask this question. Do you think those big high scoring, high priced deer would move a little faster if the price was dropped by a third. How about half? If I could only pay 2000-3000 for a 220 inch deer would I be able to buy them? I’ll bet if I could buy them and sell them for 5- 6,000 that they would be taken in the preserve so fast that it would be amazing! And all of the sudden those 150-170 deer would be passed up like crazy.
So here is what I think (and I’m planning) will happen.
High scoring deer will have to come down in price, maybe 25%. 150-170 deer may go up in price (they are rare). When that happens, the hunters will step up in size a little (Unless our government keeps screwing us…which is highly possible). Demand will shift to the higher scoring deer and those deer will be taken and harvested. Things in those regards will start to balance out.
The end market will dictate what will happen over the next 5 years. Be thankful we have an end market. It drives the business.
THE GOOD AND THE BAD.
The bad of course is that prices on the big deer may continue to fall. The trick over the last couple years would be for breeders to be increasing the size of the deer they sell faster than the prices have dropped. For example if you used to raise 10 shooters that averaged 170 and brought 3500 each you grossed 35000. If they didn’t get any bigger the next few years and the price went to 2500 your gross dropped 10,000. But if you were like most breeders and increased your size to 200+ and got 4500 each, you may have increased your gross by 10,000. Prices were dropping but you were raising bigger deer. Of course costs have gone way up and really hurt us all lately.
The good news is (and I love this) we continue to widen the gap between preserve hunting and low fence hunting. That means we recruit more hunters which of course creates more demand. If a hunter is willing to spend 3000-6000 on a low fenced hunt there is a chance he will spend it in a preserve. This is all for another topic for another time but I really look at falling prices as an opportunity. It will cause problems in the short run but create demand in the long run.
Just some thoughts for now. Keep the comments coming!
