Thanks Jim for starting this topic. I enjoy the business side of this discussion and think it's fascinating. The other back and forth between guys is just good old fashioned entertainment where I have the pleasure of a free rink-side seat.
For what it's worth, here's my two cents. It always comes back to supply and demand. If sexed semen creates an over-supply situation then yes, it'll be tough on the buck selling market (especially for the less established farmers like me). It's temporary though because this will cause some folks to drop out and or downsize and the over-supply situation will be rectified. Diseases and government regulations can have the same effect on the market as well. When these "outside" influences knock the supply OR demand out of wack there will always be a period of adjustments but the market will always adjust back to neutral. If I was to guess, I'd say neutral is probably about where the market is right now. If raising deer wouldn't be fun, neutral would be at a more profitable place for the average farmer. There's nothing unique about the deer raising industry when it comes to the laws of supply and demand. Just look at the beef market. Disease and drought took out a huge portion of the mid-west herd, demand exceeded supply, prices on meat soared, new beef farmers started flooding into the lucrative market, supply comes back into check and prices come back down. Because of the influx of new beef farmers there could be an over-supply which will push prices down and drive some out of the business. Industry after industry is subject to a greater or lesser degree to these swings in the supply and demand. Think of the egg market, bird-flu has that market going crazy, there's a shortage of eggs and the prices are thru the roof. I have clients rushing to build laying houses because there's really good money in it right now. I fear the prices might come back down before they get going and then suddenly there will be an over-supply unless bird-flu hits again. This will not bode well for them.
Think about what would happen if the top was blown off the deer industry. Let's say the government would start buying huge numbers of the private herd to enhance the wild herd. Prices would soar for years but only till the farmers would catch up to the demand. Then we'd be back to the same neutral zone where it's not very lucrative for the average farmer because it's just too much fun.
Wow, that was a little on the long side.